Algorithmic Complexity vs. Market Efficiency: Evaluating Wavelet–Transformer Architectures for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting

Summary

We compare a Wavelet–Transformer model with persistence for Bitcoin price forecasting. In the reported one-day test, the more complex model does not outperform the last observed price. The result concerns this model and this test.

Scope and limitations

The study evaluates forecasting errors. It does not evaluate agents, trades or trading costs. A complete reproduction has not been verified.

Experiments

A reading of the published study; a complete reproduction has not been verified.

Citation and source

Aldan Jay; Rafael Berlanga. (2026). Algorithmic Complexity vs. Market Efficiency: Evaluating Wavelet–Transformer Architectures for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting. Algorithms · 19(2) · 101.

DOI: 10.3390/a19020101 · CC BY 4.0

@article{jay2026algorithmic,
  title = {Algorithmic Complexity vs. Market Efficiency: Evaluating Wavelet–Transformer Architectures for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting},
  author = {Jay, Aldan and Berlanga, Rafael},
  journal = {Algorithms},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {19},
  number = {2},
  eid = {101},
  doi = {10.3390/a19020101},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/a19020101},
  note = {CC BY 4.0}
}